MLB Mock Draft 2026 1.0

Welcome to the latest draft talk as the Men's College World Series Championship Series begins

For those that have followed my work at IvyFutures (a moniker that stuck) and North Side Bound, you know how passionate I am about the MLB Draft. It’s an area that I’ve followed to an almost obsessive degree for well over two decades. That passion has led to incredible opportunities evaluating players and interacting with members of the scouting community. Learning and listening to those in the game and refining my process is a constant goal of mine. Expect to see a lot of MLB Draft content here. Thank you for checking out The Baseball Tribune.

In this mock I explore chatter from around the league and apply that with context based on historical drafting tendencies.

1. Chicago White Sox — Roch Cholowsky — SS — UCLA

Bonus Slot: $11,350,600

Previous 1st round selections: Colson Montgomery (SS), Noah Schultz (LHP), Jacob Gonzalez (SS), Hagen Smith (LHP), Billy Carlson (SS)

How the White Sox draft: Chicago has invested heavily in upside with its early selections, but the organization has not limited itself to one demographic. The White Sox have used premium picks on high school projection, college performance, pitching traits, and up-the-middle position players. With the largest assigned value of the bonus-pool era, Chicago can take the best player on its board and still build a flexible strategy for later rounds.

Mock 1.0: We’re at the point in the draft cycle where favorites for the top selection start to get public pushback. Cholowsky has been the presumptive first selection for most of the draft cycle. He is not a perfect prospect and offers more of a floor rather than a pure ceiling, but there’s a tremendous amount of nitpicking going on with Roch. He offers the most complete profile in the class. The UCLA shortstop has a good chance to remain at the position, brings a strong offensive track record, and offers fewer risks compared to Emerson, Lackey, or Flora. Expect the White Sox to explore different bonus scenarios with Grady Emerson and Vahn Lackey, who are excellent candidates in their own right. I don’t put much stock that the Giants would be able to buy down Roch to the 4th selection, but doesn’t mean they wouldn’t try. When all is said and done I don’t believe the White Sox are going to get bullied around; they’ll take their favorite combination of player and bonus pool of the top three players. Right now I’d say that’s Roch Cholowsky.

2. Tampa Bay Rays — Grady Emerson — SS — Fort Worth Christian HS (TX)

Bonus Slot: $10,507,000

Previous 1st round selections: Carson Williams (SS), Xavier Isaac (1B), Brayden Taylor (3B), Theo Gillen (OF), Daniel Pierce (SS)

How the Rays draft: Tampa Bay has never been afraid to diverge from public consensus. The Rays frequently target age, bat-to-ball ability, athleticism, and traits that provide multiple paths toward value. They also have enough pool flexibility this year to consider an aggressive high school strategy.

Mock 1.0: The Rays are in an excellent position with seemingly two of the remaining best three players in the class still remaining. Emerson may have the best long-term ceiling in the class, and there are scouts who have followed him who believe he could become an even better prospect than Cholowsky. The left-handed-hitting shortstop combines advanced offensive feel at his age with the frame to add strength. Tampa Bay can simply select whichever player remains from the top tier. I lean Emerson over Lackey at this stage, but I wouldn’t be shocked by either outcome.

3. Minnesota Twins — Eric Booth Jr. — OF — Oak Grove HS (MS)

Bonus Slot: $9,740,100

Previous 1st round selections: Chase Petty (RHP), Brooks Lee (SS), Walker Jenkins (OF), Kaelen Culpepper (SS), Marek Houston (SS)

How the Twins draft: Minnesota has balanced college and high school selections while frequently targeting athletic players with usually stronger contact-based profiles. That deviated a tad with Culpepper, but up-the-middle defenders would be the ones I’d watch for here

Mock 1.0: This is the first curveball in the mock. Vahn Lackey and Jackson Flora would both make sense and be presumptive favorites here, but in the mock Lackey and Flora go a pick later respectively. Booth, however, gives Minnesota an opportunity to bet on one of the best athletes available. He has moved firmly into the upper tier of draft eligible players during the spring and offers an exciting combination of speed, defensive value, and offensive upside. This is a classic up-the-middle profile Minnesota has targeted.

4. San Francisco Giants — Vahn Lackey — C — Georgia Tech

Bonus Slot: $8,988,400

Previous 1st round selections: Will Bednar (RHP), Reggie Crawford (LHP), Bryce Eldridge (OF/RHP), James Tibbs III (OF), Gavin Kilen (SS)

How the Giants draft: While this front office has not been afraid to take a large swing mostly in free agency and via trades, the past few first rounders have represented relatively safe profiles. But the Buster Posey-led Giants organization has never picked this high. Expect them to take a swing here.

Mock 1.0: Lackey could reasonably go first overall or anywhere in the top three and not question the selection. There was a tremendous amount of metaphorical ink spilled about how the trade for the 29th overall draft pick was the Giants’ way of buying down Roch Cholowsky. I’m skeptical that’s possible, but could the additional money buy down any one of the top three players to number 4 overall? I think so and in this mock we see Hall of Fame catcher, Buster Posey, as President of Baseball ops trade away a catcher of the future (Patrick Bailey) providing bonus pool funds to land another one in Vahn Lackey. A catcher with his offensive production and overall athleticism does not come around often, like Posey knows. The Giants would need to determine how confident they are that Lackey remains behind the plate, but the bat gives him a strong floor even if his long-term defensive home changes. A middle-of-the-order catcher would be the ideal outcome.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates — Jacob Lombard — SS — Gulliver Prep (FL)

Bonus Slot: $8,336,500

Previous 1st round selections: Henry Davis (C), Termarr Johnson (2B), Paul Skenes (RHP), Konnor Griffin (SS), Seth Hernandez (RHP)

How the Pirates draft: Pittsburgh has leaned toward ceiling with its most important recent selections. Paul Skenes, Konnor Griffin, and Seth Hernandez were all very different prospects, but each represented opportunities to pursue perhaps the highest ceiling in their respective draft classes. The Pirates also have the largest total bonus pool in the 2026 Draft, which creates multiple strategic options.

Mock 1.0: Lombard doesn’t necessarily have a higher ceiling than Emerson, but this is undoubtedly an upside play from Pittsburgh. He is one of the few players with a legitimate argument to join the top group and has the physical traits teams seek in a high-upside prep shortstop. Lombard brings size, athleticism, projectable power, and a chance to remain on the left side of the infield. Pittsburgh does not need to force an underslot play here because it already has additional selections and a record-setting pool. Lombard fits the upside-oriented direction of the organization and gives the system another potential cornerstone position player. Flora makes a tremendous amount of sense here as well and so does Tyler Bell who I’ve been told by several teams that he could go in the top ten selections and not surprise their respective organizations.

6. Kansas City Royals — Jackson Flora — RHP — UC Santa Barbara

Bonus Slot: $7,746,100

Previous 1st round selections: Frank Mozzicato (LHP), Gavin Cross (OF), Blake Mitchell (C), Jac Caglianone (1B), Sean Gamble (OF), Josh Hammond (SS) [PPI selection]

How the Royals draft: Kansas City has shown a willingness to trust its evaluations rather than adhere to one predictable drafting model. The Royals have selected high school pitching, college outfielders, prep catchers, and impact college bats with their most valuable recent selections. The common thread is a willingness to pursue ceiling.

Mock 1.0: Flora is the best pitcher in the class and could easily be selected several spots earlier. He combines size, performance, and a starter’s arsenal. Reaching out to evaluators with different teams not one could give me an argument for a different top college arm in the class. Pitching always carries risk, but Flora offers a stronger combination of present ability and long-term projection than the other available arms. The Royals could pursue a prep pitcher such as Gio Rojas or look toward a position player (Booth Jr mentioned a decent amount with KC from other teams). Flora is difficult to pass up. Kansas City has an opportunity to add a potential frontline starter.

7. Baltimore Orioles — Ryder Helfrick — C — Arkansas

Bonus Slot: $7,327,200

Previous 1st round selections: Colton Cowser (OF), Jackson Holliday (SS), Enrique Bradfield Jr (OF), Vance Honeycutt (OF), Ike Irish (OF)

How the Orioles draft: Baltimore has invested heavily in hitters, especially players with strong underlying offensive traits. The organization has demonstrated confidence in its ability to improve swing decisions and offensive consistency after players enter professional baseball. The Orioles also value up-the-middle defensive profiles.

Mock 1.0: Helfrick may not be the safest hitter remaining, but he is an outstanding fit for Baltimore. He brings real defensive value behind the plate and gives the organization a chance to bet on offensive development. Specifically when we dive into the batted-ball metrics Helfrick aligns closely with Honeycutt and Irish, both hitters who could stand to improve on whiffs and chase, but hit the snot out of the ball. Helfrick’s 90th+ percentile Avg EV, 90th EV, and Barrel% all stand out. Catchers with a credible chance to remain at the position tend to rise as the draft approaches. Helfrick has answered enough questions this spring to enter the first-round discussion comfortably. The Orioles could explore an underslot scenario, but Helfrick offers a compelling balance of positional value and upside. This is the type of selection Baltimore has consistently positioned itself to maximize.

8. Athletics — Chris Hacopian — 3B — Texas A&M

Bonus Slot: $6,982,600

Previous 1st round selections: Maxwell Muncy (SS), Daniel Susac (C), Jacob Wilson (IF), Nick Kurtz (1B), Jamie Arnold (LHP)

How the Athletics draft: The Athletics have emphasized contact ability and offensive performance while remaining willing to select players at different stages of development. Their recent first-round position players have generally offered a strong foundational hitting skill, even when defensive questions remained. Arnold was an exception, but I would say that feedback entering the draft was not to expect Arnold to slide that far.

Mock 1.0: Hacopian features one of the best batted ball profiles in the draft. Similar to Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz in recent seasons, the A’s have a batted-ball type. Hacopian fits that well. Defensively, the long-term defensive home remains a question. Hacopian controls the strike zone, makes frequent contact, and has performed against advanced competition. The power ceiling may determine whether he becomes an everyday third baseman or a more complete middle-of-the-order threat. There are defensive questions, but overall the hitting profile should outweigh the positioning questions.

9. Atlanta Braves — Cole Carlon — LHP — Arizona State

Bonus Slot: $6,675,300

Previous 1st round selections: Ryan Cusick (RHP), Owen Murphy (RHP), Hurston Waldrep (RHP), Cam Caminiti (LHP), Tate Southisene (SS)

How the Braves draft: Atlanta has repeatedly invested in pitching near the top of the draft. The Braves have selected college arms, prep arms, and pitchers with projection remaining. Not afraid to take pitchers with significant question marks that other orgs have big concerns about, namely fastball quality.

Mock 1.0: Carlon has become one of the most interesting risers in the college pitching group. The left-hander gives Atlanta an opportunity to continue targeting arms while avoiding a reach. Gio Rojas is a popular name connected with the Braves at pick 9 as well. I hear differing things on Dietz and this would be an extreme high-end for him, but I wouldn’t rule it out. Carlon offers a combination of present stuff, performance, and handedness that should appeal to an organization comfortable developing pitching. With another selection coming at No. 26, Atlanta can do a lot of interesting maneuvers with the two selections.

10. Colorado Rockies — Drew Burress — OF — Georgia Tech

Bonus Slot: $6,393,100

Previous 1st round selections: Benny Montgomery (OF), Gabriel Hughes (RHP), Chase Dollander (RHP), Charlie Condon (3B), Ethan Holliday (SS)

How the Rockies draft: There is a new organization regime in charge of Colorado and so it’s hard to know what trends will continue. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them take one of the better offensive performers in college who will at least start out in a premium position.

Mock 1.0: Burress is one of the best college hitters in the class and represents strong value at No. 10. The questions surrounding his physical profile aren’t going away, but he has consistently produced and offers a well-rounded projection. Burress gives the Rockies a polished hitter with the ability to move quickly and enough impact to become an everyday outfielder. There are higher-variance options still available, but a productive college bat with Burress’ track record would be a strong addition to the system. We will see what the new front office decides to do in embracing risk, but a top ten selection with Burress is a good start.

11. Washington Nationals — Tyler Bell — SS — Kentucky

Bonus Slot: $6,133,500

Previous 1st round selections: Brady House (3B), Elijah Green (OF), Dylan Crews (OF), Seaver King (IF), Eli Willits (SS)

How the Nationals draft: Washington’s new leadership group is still an unknown, but the organization has traditionally been comfortable pursuing upside. The Nationals have selected athletes, premium defenders, and players with enough physical ability to become impact contributors if development breaks correctly. And there were similar upside-hunting traits with Boston where key front office members came from so that bears watching.

Mock 1.0: Bell could continue to rise as the draft approaches. He has performed in the SEC while playing through a shoulder issue and brings the added value of an up-the-middle defensive profile. bell entered the year as a dark horse top 5 selection and a popular mock early in the draft. He’s come back and hit well post injury. Washington could consider Gio Rojas or AJ Gracia, but Bell provides a compelling combination of performance, defensive utility, and top 5 overall ceiling here at pick 11. Asking around I’ve heard Jared Grindlinger mentioned here more, but I was looking around for where Bell could make sense and felt the Nats were a good landing spot.

12. Los Angeles Angels — AJ Gracia — OF — Virginia

Bonus Slot: $5,889,300

Previous 1st round selections: Sam Bachman (RHP), Zach Neto (SS), Nolan Schanuel (1B), Christian Moore (2B), Tyler Bremner (RHP)

How the Angels draft: The Angels have aggressively targeted players who can move quickly through the system. Their preference for college performers has become one of the draft’s clearest organizational tendencies.

Mock 1.0: Gracia entered the season with significant expectations (I had him initially as a top three overall player) but looks more like a hit-first left fielder. The offensive foundation remains appealing, especially for an organization that values a shorter developmental timeline. Gracia’s left-handed swing, approach, and potential to hit for both average and power keep him in the middle of the first-round conversation. The Angels could pursue Liam Peterson or Hunter Dietz if they prefer an arm. Gracia offers the better balance of upside and probability. Los Angeles takes the college hitter and trusts the larger body of work.

13. St. Louis Cardinals — Jared Grindlinger — LHP/OF — Huntington Beach HS (CA)

Bonus Slot: $5,661,300

Previous 1st round selections: Michael McGreevy (RHP), Cooper Hjerpe (LHP), Chase Davis (OF), JJ Wetherholt (IF), Liam Doyle (LHP)

How the Cardinals draft: St. Louis has been willing to evaluate players creatively. The Cardinals have shown interest in lefties and two-way profiles while not limiting themselves to safe selections. With one of the larger total pools in the draft despite selecting at No. 13, the organization has enough leverage to consider a player with an unusual development path.

Mock 1.0: Grindlinger is the most fascinating player in the class. After reclassifying from the 2027 group, he has become a legitimate first-round option as both an outfielder and a left-handed pitcher. Some evaluators prefer the bat. Others prefer the projection on the mound. The Cardinals may allow him to begin his professional career exploring both paths. That flexibility is part of the appeal. Grindlinger is exceptionally young for the class and may require a substantial bonus to bypass his commitment to Tennessee, but St. Louis has the pool capital to make it happen. This is a high-upside swing that fits the organization.

14. Miami Marlins — Liam Peterson — RHP — Florida

Bonus Slot: $5,444,900

Previous 1st round selections: Khalil Watson (SS), Jacob Berry (3B), Noble Meyer (RHP), PJ Morlando (1B), Aiva Arquette (SS)

How the Marlins draft: Miami remains a challenging organization to forecast as its current front office establishes a longer track record. The Marlins have shown a willingness to target college floor players, but I wouldn’t rule out an arm

Mock 1.0: Peterson has some of the best pure stuff available, even if the results have not always matched the arsenal. The Florida right-hander brings size, velocity, and multiple pitches that could miss bats professionally. The command and consistency need refinement, which is why Peterson isn’t in the upper echelon of the class. Miami can afford to take the risk. Dietz is another arm I’ve heard connected to the Marlins. The Marlins have an opportunity to add a local player, which is a fun wrinkle, but not a driving force in the connection.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks — Gio Rojas — LHP — Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)

Previous 1st round selections: Jordan Lawler (SS), Druw Jones (CF), Tommy Troy (2B), Slade Caldwell (OF), Kayson Cunningham (IF)

Bonus Slot: $5,241,000

How the Diamondbacks draft: Arizona has pursued high-ceiling players early and shown a willingness to invest in premium high school talent. The Diamondbacks often seek athletes and developmental upside rather than limiting themselves to players with the shortest path to the majors.

Mock 1.0: Rojas could be selected much earlier than this and is mentioned with multiple teams above, but I’m just skeptical until I hear something more concrete. High school arms often go more in the middle of the first round unless they are elite, elite. Rojas is the top prep arm in the class and while high school pitching is a risky demographic, Arizona has the organizational depth and additional picks to pursue upside. James Clark, SS, is a name to watch with the DBacks at pick 31.

16. Texas Rangers — Derek Curiel — OF — LSU

Bonus Slot: $5,051,900

Previous 1st round selections: Jack Leiter (RHP), Kumar Rocker (RHP), Wyatt Langford (OF), Malcolm Moore (C), Gavin Fien (IF)

How the Rangers draft: Texas has frequently targeted players with strong performance records from major programs and conferences. The Rangers have also shown a willingness to invest in premium bats when a player with an established track record reaches their selection.

Mock 1.0: Curiel has been a prominent name for years. The left-handed-hitting outfielder offers a polished offensive approach and has continued to demonstrate that he can hit against strong competition. The primary question is how much game power eventually develops. If he reaches base consistently, remains in center field, and adds even moderate impact, he will provide value. The Rangers take a proven SEC performer with a clear offensive identity.

17. Houston Astros — Justin Lebron — SS — Alabama

Bonus Slot: $4,868,600

Previous 1st round selections: (No 1st round picks in 2020 and 2021 because of cheating scandal punishments), Drew Gilbert (CF), Brice Matthews (SS), Walker Janek (C), Xavier Neyens (IF)

How the Astros draft: Houston has leaned heavily into measurable traits and model-friendly profiles. The Astros are comfortable accepting risk. In the previous few top selections they have targeted power at the expense of contact.

Mock 1.0: Lebron is one of the draft’s most difficult evaluations. The tools are obvious: power, speed, arm strength, and defensive ability at shortstop. While Lebron entered the season as a consensus top 5 overall prospect, the poor SEC performance dropped his projection. Lebron could go considerably earlier if a club falls in love with the ceiling.

18. Cincinnati Reds — Tegan Kuhns — RHP — Tennessee

Bonus Slot: $4,695,500

Previous 1st round selections: Matt McLain (SS), Cam Collier (3B), Rhett Lowder (RHP), Chase Burns (RHP), Steele Hall (SS)

How the Reds draft: Cincinnati has been willing to take advantage of value when talented players slide. The Reds have also invested successfully in high-end pitching and are not afraid to select an arm with the potential to move quickly.

Mock 1.0: Kuhns will cause some division amongst scouts in pitch development personnel. The toolset looks appealing and some teams will jump all over his broad arsenal thinking there are some easy adjustments in pro ball. Others have more questions about whether the raw ingredients are as enticing as they appear at first blush. But the Reds have taken those challenges head on before and gotten great results.

19. Cleveland Guardians — Tyler Spangler — SS — De La Salle HS (CA)

Bonus Slot: $4,530,500

Previous 1st round selections: Gavin Williams (RHP), Chase DeLauter (OF), Ralphy Velazquez (C), Travis Bazzana (2B), Jace LaViolette (OF)

How the Guardians draft: Cleveland remains one of the league’s most model-driven organizations. The Guardians have been a club willing to take injured players that get knocked down other draft boards due to those injuries.

Mock 1.0: Spangler fits Cleveland’s general profile . He is a prep shortstop with the athletic ability to remain in the middle of the diamond and enough offensive upside to warrant a first-round investment. The Guardians are comfortable taking players whose underlying traits may be stronger than their public draft momentum. This is not a selection based solely on consensus ranking. It is an organizational fit. Cleveland bets on its evaluation process and player-development infrastructure.

20. Boston Red Sox — Cameron Flukey — RHP — Coastal Carolina

Bonus Slot: $4,373,900

Previous 1st round selections: Marcelo Meyer (SS), Mikey Romero (SS), Kyle Teel (C), Braden Montgomery (OF), Kyson Witherspoon (RHP)

How the Red Sox draft: Boston has invested heavily in hitters early, particularly athletic position players with offensive upside. That does not mean the Red Sox will avoid pitching when the value is right like Witherspoon sitting there. Recent picks of arms early alongside pretty immediate pitching development improvements should have the club confident it can go arm or hitter.

Mock 1.0: Flukey could be selected closer to the top 10 if a team wants a college arm. The Coastal Carolina right-hander has continued to generate first-round interest after returning from a rib injury. He gives Boston an opportunity to add one of the better college pitchers available. The Red Sox could continue their run of position players, but Flukey offers the right combination of value and fit. I thought seriously about Lowrance here.

21. San Diego Padres — Coleman Borthwick — RHP/IF — South Walton HS (FL)

Bonus Slot: $4,224,700

Previous 1st round selections: Jackson Merrill (SS), Dylan Lesko (RHP), Dillon Head (OF), Kash Mayfield (LHP), Kruz Schoolcraft (LHP)

How the Padres draft: San Diego is one of the most aggressive organizations in the draft. The Padres have repeatedly targeted high school upside, premium athleticism, and players with loud tools. They are comfortable accepting developmental risk in exchange for a chance at an impact outcome.

Mock 1.0: Borthwick is exactly the type of player San Diego likes to target. He is a two-way high school athlete, but the long-term value is most likely on the mound. The more and more I dug into Borthwick this spring, the more convinced I am that this is a top 15 player in the class. The right-hander offers considerable projection and one of the more exciting prep pitching ceilings in the class. The risk with high school arms makes some teams shy away from this profile, but the Padres under Preller aren’t one of them. You’ll see San Diego linked with prep lefties for good reason here. Look for Kevin Roberts Jr at pick 60 if he’s there and signable.

22. Detroit Tigers — James Clark — SS — California HS

Bonus Slot: $4,082,700

Previous 1st round selections: Jackson Jobe (RHP), Jace Jung (2B), Max Clark (OF), Bryce Rainer (SS), Jordan Yost (SS)

How the Tigers draft: Detroit has leaned into high school talent and athletic upside under its current leadership group. The Tigers have been willing to select prep position players early and allow development time rather than prioritizing the fastest path to the majors.

Mock 1.0: Clark is a natural fit for Detroit’s recent strategy. He is a high school shortstop with enough athleticism, physical projection, and defensive potential to generate first-round interest. Nationally there hasn’t been as much juice on him as say, Aiden Ruiz, but after watching Clark last summer in Omaha, I think he should be in the mix in the 20-40 range. It might be a tad rich for him here, but after watching him drive the ball out of the spacious Charles Schwab Field, I wouldn’t be surprised if a team believed in the overall skillset.

23. Chicago Cubs — Daniel Jackson — C — Georgia

Bonus Slot: $3,947,600

Previous 1st round selections: Jordan Wicks (LHP), Cade Horton (RHP), Matt Shaw (SS), Cam Smith (3B), Ethan Conrad (OF)

How the Cubs draft: We saw the Cubs prioritize players who the organization viewed as falling to them in Howard and Wicks, but unless something really crazy happened in 2022, they were very into the profile of Horton. This is an organization that has been willing to target upside with their top few selections over the past few years. In 2023 and 2024, the Cubs effectively sat back and waited for a top talent to fall. It’s an excellent strategy that many of the best organizations employ. Those plans resulted in Matt Shaw and Cam Smith (who both looked like impact players in their debuts). For position players, wood bat performance appears to carry significant weight.

Mock 1.0: Daniel Jackson is not the profile of a player the Cubs have prioritized with their top selections. First, as a college catcher, the Cubs have been linked publicly but feedback has been that those connections didn’t often match up in prior years. An exception was Kyle Teel in 2023, but make no mistake, the Cubs going college C would be a surprise based on historical tendencies. All that said, I believe Jackson could be a Cubs fit here. He hits the ball hard and barrels the ball showing power to all fields. He also doesn’t chase the ball and had success in wood bat leagues. There are swing and miss and position questions, but Jackson should get an opportunity to catch in pro ball. He’s extremely athletic and not to focus too much on production, but a 25/25 season (sixth ever in NCAA history) and a SEC Triple Crown is a historic season.

What if it wasn’t Jackson? There are pitchers who would make sense here, including Logan Reddeman and Cade Townsend if he stays in the draft. Hunter Dietz I receive far more mixed opinions with some iffy at 23 and others all-in on him. The Cubs also took Jaxon Wiggins and a subslot offer for his brother, Carson Wiggins, shouldn’t be ruled out if they don’t think he’ll last till 62. Additionally I thought long and hard about Coleman Borthwick, a prep RHP who I think is a top 15 overall player in the class. If Borthwick is the Cubs pick at 23, I’d think they would have taken one of my favorite prep arms of the last few classes. I can’t shake a younger Nolan McLean profile. Borthwick could be a true two-way player as well, but if not, the arm is crazy impressive. Last winter I was asked by Cubs personnel who I thought they’d take in July and I said Aiden Robbins or Caden Sorrell if either could reduce their whiffs. Sorrell couldn’t and Robbins is at least playable. That should be a candidate here, but I lean Jackson.

24. Seattle Mariners — Logan Reddeman — RHP — UCLA

Bonus Slot: $3,818,700

Previous 1st round selections: Harry Ford (C), Cole Young (SS), Colt Emerson (SS), Jonny Farmelo (OF), Tai Peete (SS), Jurrangelo Cijntje (SHP), Kade Anderson (LHP)

How the Mariners draft: Seattle has pursued high-upside talent while building one of baseball’s strongest pitching-development reputations. The Mariners have invested in prep hitters, college arms, and players with developmental traits their system believes it can maximize.

Mock 1.0: Reddeman is a logical target for a pitching-development organization assuming medicals check out okay. According to Kiley McDaniel, Reddemann was set to pitch in a Game 3 matchup in NCAA regionals, but UCLA lost before that. And according to folks around the UCLA program, Reddemann is already throwing again. The UCLA right-hander has enough present ability to fit comfortably in the first round and still offers room for development. That combo of present skills and enough upside potential often gets teams excited. The Mariners do a great job with college arms.

25. Milwaukee Brewers — Ace Reese — 3B — Mississippi State

Bonus Slot: $3,696,000

Previous 1st round selections: Sal Frelick (OF), Eric Brown Jr. (SS), Brock Wilken (3B), Braylon Payne (OF), Andrew Fischer (3B)

How the Brewers draft: Milwaukee has consistently valued offensive decision-making and bat-to-ball skills. The Brewers have also benefited from allowing the draft board to come to them rather than reaching for positional need. When they diverge from a contact-heavy profile, the player generally brings a clear carrying tool. Milwaukee hasn’t been as concerned about positional value decreasing if a guy needs to move down the defensive order (like moving form 3B to 1B) in the future.

Mock 1.0: Reese gives Milwaukee a productive college bat with a chance to provide meaningful offensive impact. Reese has been in the middle of the first-round conversation throughout the spring, but he hasn’t had the same level of heat later this summer. Some scouts view him as a tweener defensively, similar to players like Wilken, Fischer, and non-Milwaukee players Michael Busch and Tommy White being mention. But others think he could stick at 3B with a good bat.

Prospect Promotion Incentive and Penalized Selections

26. Atlanta Braves — Bo Lowrance — 3B — T.L. Hanna HS (SC)

Bonus Slot: $3,578,800

Mock 1.0: Lowrance has been one of the more significant risers in the class. The South Carolina prep third baseman brings offensive upside and enough physical projection to interest teams in the late first round. In this mock the Braves have the pool flexibility after Carlon to pursue a high school bat with a meaningful college commitment (Virginia). If you ask local and national evaluators the name Freddie Freeman has been tossed around with Lowrance. I couldn’t shake that when I first heard it and how fitting would it be for Atlanta to make this selection?

27. New York Mets — Cade Townsend — RHP — Mississippi

Bonus Slot: $3,466,500

Pick Note: The Mets’ original first-round selection dropped 10 spots because the organization exceeded the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax.

Mock 1.0: I’m not sure if Townsend will even remain in the draft, but he has traits the Mets have gravitated towards in recent seasons. The Mets have done a tremendous job of targeting strong metrically inclined arms in recent years and seeing rapid pitching developments once they enter professional ball. Townsend has heat up higher than this, but it’s a strong team-player connection.

28. Houston Astros — Gabe Gaeckle — RHP — Arkansas

Bonus Slot: $3,363,600

Pick Note: Houston received this Prospect Promotion Incentive selection after Hunter Brown finished in the top three of the American League Cy Young Award voting.

Mock 1.0: Gaeckle entered the draft cycle with significant interest, but it hasn’t fully translated. Good not great this season and the smaller stature is going to deter certain teams. Haven’t confirmed but a lot of chatter Houston was in on Gage Wood last year but there were teams scared by medical questions. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Houston target a similar profile and provide a similar level of upside after Justin Lebron.