20-Round Cubs Mock Draft

It's officially time for the MLB Draft

LET’S TALK STRATEGY

I cast a wide net for players that might appeal to the Cubs based on traits they’ve previously targeted. A good number of the following players are ones that I’d personally select while also adhering to past drafting strategies as mentioned above.

While I discuss signing bonus figures, I want to be clear that this is what I personally would project that player could be seeking. I have no inside information from team or player/advisor sources about the signability of any single player mentioned below.

For a timestamp on this I completed my player decisions on July 6th.

This is always an exercise in futility. But to me it’s a fun one.

The Bonus Pool (Top Ten Rounds)

Considerations: I believe the Cubs have self-evaluated the state of their system and where they’ve invested in their infrastructure. And with that self-appraisal I believe it’s a possibility they target college arms alongside hitters with power. The names I’ve heard most on the hitting side are preps, especially in the early ranges.

First Round (17) - Ethan Conrad - CF - Wake Forest

17th pick slot value: $4,750,800
Projected bonus value: $4,000,800

At the very end I considered two main players available, Conrad and Xavier Neyens. Ultimately I believe the Cubs would favor an underslot and I’ve felt since last fall that Conrad fits the Cubs model to a tee as long as medicals come out okay. He hit on the Cape, he lines up at a premium position (CF though may slide down to a corner), and his metrics line up. Conrad adapted to a bigger conference before his shoulder injury.

The elephant in the room when discussing metrics with players is that metrics like batted-ball data above was really the second generation of improved player analysis. First evaluators used production (mathematics according to Moneyball) to “cut through all that”, then batted ball metrics provided a deeper understanding and projection. Now teams also utilize biomechanics in a way that’s not truly quantifiable on the public side. I can’t speak to all that so my projection on Conrad or Neyens is based on a puzzle missing some pieces.

This move saves $750k and in a class like this, it’s best to load up with a lot of intriguing options in rounds 2-4.
There are a number of interesting preps that could make sense in this scenario: Neyens, Kayson Cunningham, Gavin Fien, Daniel Pierce, Josh Hammond come to mind. All would be exciting options. On the bat side, I wonder about Ethan Conrad and Andrew Fischer over Wehiwa Aloy.
But I’ve been wrong before so if Aloy is the selection it’s both very much a model selection and the worst kept secret in the draft.

What if it wasn’t Conrad or Neyens? Originally mocked to be Kayson Cunningham who I believe would highly intrigue the Chicago Cubs. But recent feedback that teams in the middle of the first could be looking into flexible options to help bonus pool. And surprisingly I believe that Cunningham could be a guy to both “fall” to the Cubs and still come in underslot. It’s tricky and I could have the feel for this one incorrect, but let’s examine a similar situation: Arjun Nimmala, 2023. Nimmala had age on his side and that differs from Cunningham, to be sure, but strictly evaluating how players were viewed externally, Nimmala up until the draft was widely considered a top 15 consensus player and likely top 15 selection. He ultimately went 20th and underslot to boot. This isn’t to knock Nimmala, who is very intriguing and seems like an incredible kid. But it’s just to illustrate the possibility that the public might have a higher view of a player still very much a first round talent. If Cunningham has homes more in the 23-26 range that could be an opportunity to lock in $3.85m (bit above 80% slot at 17 and slot at pick 23) while landing in an organization that should undoubtedly feel like they’re bringing in a quality player. I didn’t ultimately make that the selection, but it was close, very close.

A college arm here makes a ton of sense as well, but the exact order and preference of different options likely is up for significant debate between player development and scouting departments. Namely Tyler Bremner, Gage Wood, and Riley Quick make sense to me here, but there’s a lot of questions about which players even have a high likelihood of being on the board at 17. There are some that believe if the right college arm falls here that is the preference for the Cubs. We’ll see if that’s the case and what arm that would be.

Second Round (56) – Chase Shores - RHP - LSU

56th pick slot value: $1,680,000
Projected bonus value: $2,000,000
Report: Primarily viewed as a reliever, Shores has the potential to start. He boasts premium velocity but could he be rebuilt in proball into a stud? Very possible. The overslot here may surprise and I can’t comment on any knowledge of Shores’s true ask, but the Cubs have been convicted in their pitching assessments before.
Names that are buzzy in pitching circles like Marcus Phillips and Cade Obermueller, or even Kyson Witherspoon’s twin brother, Malachi would fit the Cubs well. A fun play could be prep shortstop Cooper Flemming.

Third Round (90) - JT Quinn - RHP - Georgia

90th pick slot value: $865,500
Projected bonus value: $1,000,500
Report: Quinn is consistently ranked much lower here in national pubs, but that feels like it’s missed his development. I imagine teams have him higher. He hits the upper 90s for velocity, has a starters frame, will use two different breaking balls, and is having success in the Cape Cod league. It’s the profile of a player who goes in the top 100 picks and paid like the top 75 player.

Fourth Round (121) - Gustavo Melendez - Colegio La Merced HS (PR) - SS

121st pick slot value: $623,300
Projected bonus value: $1,000,300
Report:

Another name to consider here is Josh Gibbs, another prep SS. He’s twitchy and showing off good power potential. Let’s toss another name that seems to fit what the Cubs have targeted, Jack Lafflam. He’s a right-handed pitcher with more of cut-ride quality to the fastball. Standing 6’6”, he also fits the physical build the Cubs have targeted before.

Fifth Round (151) - Brian Curley - RHP - Georgia

151st pick slot value: $465,400
Projected bonus value: $405,400
Report: Don’t factcheck me but Curley rates in the 99th percentile in wDAWG+. That’s a real metric, trust me. All kidding aside, he’s animated out there and has pitched in multiple roles. A team should send him out to start. It’s premier velocity, regularly around 100mph and a tight gyro slider/curveball. I’m not sure if it necessarily fits the “death ball” classification, but there are shades of that.

Sixth Round (181) - Harry Genth - 2B - Haverford College

181st pick slot value: $355,800
Projected bonus value: $25,800
Report: We have a Division 3, senior signing here. Genth is having a successful campaign with the Trenton Thunder of the MLB Draft league. It’s a more contact-focused bat with an emphasis on approach and on base percentage. That’s a worthwhile swing for a player who is already 22 and should come in for a significant slot savings.

Seventh Round (211) - Cam Tilly - RHP - Auburn

211st pick slot value: $278,500
Projected bonus value: $278,500
Report: I’ve liked Cam Tilly a tremendous amount and was a proponent of selecting him out of high school. Instead he went to Auburn where he mostly pitched out of the pen. He has starter qualities though and I believe he’s an excellent fit for the Cubs.

Eighth Round (241) - Ty Van Dyke - RHP - Stetson

241st pick slot value: $225,400
Projected bonus value: $179,200
Report: Van Dyke generates a lot of whiffs at the back end of the bullpen for Stetson. He’s crushed it and appears to be a quick-moving reliever. Van Dyke is nearly 22 years old so I project a slight saving off of slot, but still more than the $150k in Rounds 11-20

Ninth Round (271) - Brandon Shannon - RHP - McHenry West HS (IL)

271st pick slot value: $201,800
Projected bonus value: $500,000

Report: Shannon is well-liked coming out of the High School ranks as a Louisville commit who leveled up this spring. The 6’6” righty now sits low 90s, but has touched 97 mph and usually is FB/SL but has also utilized a curve and changeup.

Out of anyone in this class it’s likely this is the least accurate bonus pool. I could be quite light above.

Tenth Round (301) - AJ Soldra - OF - Seton Hall

301st pick slot value: $190,300
Projected bonus value: $165,300

Report: Soldra is a name that is driven far more how I would select than anyone I’ve heard connected to the organization. I really like him. He might be a left fielder in professional ball, but he shows off good bat speed and he’s crushing it on the Cape. Towards the middle of Day 2 - after going for upside selections earlier - I’m hoping for a Jonny Long type of move to wrap up the Bonus Pool rounds.

Eleventh Round - The Overslot

Based on the projected bonus values above and with Rounds 11-20 rules, we have $600k in extra funds. That gives me the opportunity to offer a $750k deal to one player in the post-bonus pool rounds.

Josh Gibbs - SS - Forsyth Central HS (GA)

Overslot projected bonus value: $750k
Report: Gibbs looked solid on the Combine but it’s his twitchy actions on the field that are most exciting. Similar to Eli Lovich and Zyhir Hope before him, Cobb would require some work on the physicality (more Lovich) and swing, but the tools are there. The UGA commit will likely command a significant figure.

A few other players to consider could be catcher Landon Hodge and third baseman Caleb Barnett.

Rounds 12-20

(all players listed alphabetical)

• Angel Acosta - RHP - Alvin Community College

• Jackson Chirello - 3B/OF -Kennesaw State

• Noah Edders - RHP - Troy

• Rob Evans - LHP - Miami

• Andrew Healy - LHP - Duke

• Dominic Hellman - 1B/DH - Oregon

• David Leslie - RHP - Grove City College

• Zane Petty - RHP - Texas Tech

• Broedy Poppell - C - Florida A&M

Angel Acosta is a junior college righthander who had Tommy John surgery. Acosta is back throwing and apparently back to mid nineties. Chirello and Hellman put up outstanding production, along with Poppell and the Cubs have taken serious swings at formerly known as Day 3 hitters (with good results). Poppell is on the older side, but I think with needs at catcher throughout baseball, that’s the type of selection teams should make. David Leslie showed flashes this year as a D3 arm with upside. The post- bonus pool rounds are for dreaming on player development projects and model darlings. Risk is low here so it behooves the Cubs to take as many chances as possible.